Genk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
49%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.33
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
24.1
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
7%
6.5
X/2
18%
5.25
X/X
11%
4.89
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
20%
3.11
2/X
5%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.1 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
49%
Away Win
41%
+7.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 45%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.36/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.30
-20% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
17.7 Crosses 16.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.10 xG 1.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
387 Passes 260
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.04.2025 Genk Genk 1-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
15.03.2025 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
10.11.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
26.05.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
01.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-2
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.10 xG 0.72
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
437 Passes 209
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Genk 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Genk had 64% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 36%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.10 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Genk and 1.67 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Genk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Genk 28%, draw 23%, Union Saint-Gilloise 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ BTTS Yes
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