HNK Gorica 2-2 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.97
6+ Goals
8%
19.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.3pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +24%
1.33/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.25
+5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
17.6 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.41 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
261 Passes 318
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
21.09.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
18.05.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-0 HT 2-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
14.03.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-2 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
05.03.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
13.12.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
2-2
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.34 xG 0.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
240 Passes 341
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica and Slaven Belupo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was HNK Gorica at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 42% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 58%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 2.34 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.50 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

HNK Gorica 2-2 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 41%, draw 26%, Slaven Belupo 33%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (HNK Gorica), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
7 Mar 2026
19:15 Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin Analysis →