HNK Gorica 2-1 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.69
4-5 Goals
21%
3.89
6+ Goals
11%
18.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+5.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.2pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +16%
1.04/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.10
+16% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.7 Crosses 18.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.12 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
257 Passes 297
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-0 HT 2-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
14.03.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-2 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
05.03.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
13.12.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
30.09.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
2-1
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.11 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
349 Passes 300
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica nicked a narrow win over Slaven Belupo 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HNK Gorica as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 52% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 48%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 2.11 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.83 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

HNK Gorica 2-1 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 48%, draw 26%, Slaven Belupo 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HNK Gorica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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