Istra 1961 2-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
22%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 32% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.32/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.10
-4% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
18.2 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Osijek
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 0.85
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
282 Passes 309
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.03.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
20.12.2024 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
04.10.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-1 HT 2-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
20.04.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
10.02.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-1
AWAY Osijek
1.11 xG 2.22
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
363 Passes 343
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 nicked a narrow win over Osijek 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Istra 1961 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 51% of the ball to Osijek's 49%, shots finished 13-21, expected goals 1.11 to 2.22 — the balance of chances actually favoured Osijek.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.00 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Osijek?

Istra 1961 2-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 45%, draw 26%, Osijek 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Istra 1961) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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