Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
24%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.86
6+ Goals
12%
18.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.86 — our 24% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-3.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +16%
1.49/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.21
+24% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +39%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
19.7 Crosses 14.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2W-1D-3L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
300 Passes 243
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
07.12.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 4-2 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
20.09.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
21.02.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
23.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
01.09.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.69 xG 0.23
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
270 Passes 373
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiva Zagreb at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 43% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 57%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.69 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.33 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 50%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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