Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.63
2-3 Goals
46%
1.69
4-5 Goals
17%
3.9
6+ Goals
8%
18.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.2pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.09/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.94
+18% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
261 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 73%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
18.2 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.99 xG 1.10
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
308 Passes 257
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
21.02.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
23.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
01.09.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
13.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
02.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-0
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.26 xG 0.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
361 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 11
8 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb squeezed past NK Varazdin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 32% / 36% — and on the day Lokomotiva Zagreb made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 54% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 46%, shots finished 10-2, expected goals 1.26 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 0.67 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated an NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%, draw 32%, NK Varazdin 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (NK Varazdin), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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