Avispa Fukuoka 1-5 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.7
4-5 Goals
17%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 51%
+4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -13%
0.94/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.97
-17% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.5 Crosses 16.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.67 xG 1.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 Passes 331
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
17.05.2025 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
04.10.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
07.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
15.10.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
11.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-5
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.91 xG 3.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
266 Passes 418
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus swept aside Avispa Fukuoka 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nagoya Grampus as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 40% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 60%, shots finished 17-22, expected goals 0.91 to 3.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.33 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-5 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 29%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 43%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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