Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 7 Aug 2026

📅07/08/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.43
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
13%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
48%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.70/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.55
+9% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
331 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Penybont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2026 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
24.01.2026 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
25.10.2025 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
20.09.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
13.04.2025 Penybont Penybont 3-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
22.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caernarfon Town
1-2
AWAY Penybont
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont edged past Caernarfon Town 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 11-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.17 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 07/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 49%, draw 25%, Penybont 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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