Caernarfon Town 2-0 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.1pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+6.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.67/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.68
+5% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Penybont
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.01.2026 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
25.10.2025 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
20.09.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
13.04.2025 Penybont Penybont 3-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
22.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
02.11.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-5 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town beat Penybont 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Caernarfon Town as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.00 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Caernarfon Town 2-0 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 48%, draw 21%, Penybont 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caernarfon Town) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
18 Apr 2026
19:15 Barry Town vs The New Saints Analysis →
19:15 Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay Analysis →
19:15 Bala Town vs Briton Ferry Analysis →
19:15 Cardiff MU vs Flint Town United Analysis →