Penybont 0-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.49
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 26% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +19%
1.19/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.42
-28% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.09.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
13.04.2025 Penybont Penybont 3-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
22.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
02.11.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-5 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
07.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town saw off Penybont 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Penybont and 1.50 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

Penybont 0-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penybont 46%, draw 23%, Caernarfon Town 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penybont), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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