Sport Recife 0-4 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Dec 2025

Sport Recife
0-4 HT 0-3
Gremio
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Sport Recife vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
52%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
16%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
9.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 31% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.92
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
5%
13.95
X/1
7%
8.26
X/2
17%
4.76
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
28%
2.52
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.1pp
52%
Away Win
50%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.1pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sport Recife v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 54%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -28%
0.77/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.00
-13% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / +4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
271 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 83%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.1 Crosses 19.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sport Recife vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Gremio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.88 xG 1.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
300 Passes 388
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.08.2025 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.09.2022 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
14.06.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
04.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
18.06.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
20.12.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1

Sport Recife 0-4 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
0-4
AWAY Gremio
0.58 xG 1.53
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 5
410 Passes 555
90% Pass Accuracy 93%
14 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio ran out comfortable winners over Sport Recife 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 43% of the ball to Gremio's 57%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.58 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sport Recife and 0.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Gremio?

Sport Recife 0-4 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 26%, draw 22%, Gremio 52%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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