Atletico Mineiro 5-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.49
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.95
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.6
X/1
20%
4.07
X/2
10%
11.75
X/X
12%
5.57
2/1
8%
23.1
2/2
7%
9.77
2/X
7%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.0pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.55/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.58
-5% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
20.4 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.12.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
20.10.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
03.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
21.07.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
20.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
5-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.95 xG 0.02
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 1
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 1
598 Passes 396
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro swept aside Vasco da Gama 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 59% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 41%, shots finished 19-1, expected goals 1.95 to 0.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Atletico Mineiro 5-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 52%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 23%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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