Fluminense 2-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
19%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
11%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 27% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.37
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
6%
8.94
X/X
14%
4.84
2/1
12%
24.45
2/2
8%
7.15
2/X
6%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+2.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
19%
Away Win
22%
-2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
1.71/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.49
+4% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 79%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
21.6 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bahia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 0.95
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
392 Passes 338
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.09.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
29.08.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
10.08.2025 Bahia Bahia 3-3 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.08.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
17.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
01.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-0
AWAY Bahia
1.86 xG 0.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 330
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense saw off Bahia 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fluminense had 53% of the ball to Bahia's 47%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.86 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 1.17 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Bahia?

Fluminense 2-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 55%, draw 26%, Bahia 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ BTTS Yes
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