Vitoria 1-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.35
6+ Goals
9%
22.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.64
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
11%
5.3
X/2
12%
6.07
X/X
16%
4.03
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
14%
4.49
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +10%
1.63/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.24
-6% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 82%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
24.1 Crosses 17.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.65 xG 1.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
304 Passes 403
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
26.08.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
05.05.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 1-3 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
27.10.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
13.06.2018 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
17.09.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
1-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
2.28 xG 0.55
38% Ball Possession 62%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
195 Passes 385
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 7
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Vitoria made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria had 38% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 62%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.28 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vitoria and 2.17 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?

Vitoria 1-0 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 40%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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