El Nacional vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Aucas — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Aucas
EKV1
El Nacional 3-1 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional got the better of Aucas 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
This one beat our numbers. Aucas carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, El Nacional had 40% of the ball to Aucas's 60%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 2.58 to 1.93.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Nacional and 1.67 for Aucas.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Aucas?
El Nacional 3-1 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Aucas?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 20%, draw 22%, Aucas 58%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.