Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.34
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
11%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
3%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
70%
-0.2pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.7pp
11%
Away Win
12%
-0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 15%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +23%
1.75/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.51
-4% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +24%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
402 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 73%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
21.5 Crosses 15.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.56 xG 0.99
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
400 Passes 218
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2025 Libertad Libertad 1-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
14.06.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
16.02.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
21.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
17.09.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-1
AWAY Libertad
1.73 xG 0.72
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 3
340 Passes 230
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 13
41 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle and Libertad shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Del Valle carried 69% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 57% of the ball to Libertad's 43%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.73 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.83 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad?

Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 69%, draw 19%, Libertad 11%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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