Farense U23 1-0 Estrela U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 8 Apr 2026

📅08/04/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.3pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense U23 EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 32%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.10/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.18
+39% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +34%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense U23
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Estrela U23
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2026 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense U23 Farense U23 PORU23
19.11.2025 Farense U23 Farense U23 4-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
21.10.2025 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-2 Farense U23 Farense U23 UŞGB
06.11.2024 Farense U23 Farense U23 2-2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
21.08.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 2-1 Farense U23 Farense U23 UŞGB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense U23
1-0
AWAY Estrela U23
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Farense U23 vs Estrela U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense U23 edged past Estrela U23 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Farense U23 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Farense U23 had 48% of the ball to Estrela U23's 52%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Farense U23 and 1.20 for Estrela U23.

What was the final score of Farense U23 vs Estrela U23?

Farense U23 1-0 Estrela U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 08/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense U23 vs Estrela U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Farense U23 46%, draw 27%, Estrela U23 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense U23), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Farense U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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