Avellino 1-0 Modena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 8 May 2026

Avellino
1-0 HT 1-0
Modena
📅08/05/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Avellino vs Modena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.45
X/1
13%
3.83
X/2
6%
11.7
X/X
12%
5.36
2/1
10%
23.95
2/2
9%
10.15
2/X
5%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-4.1pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.3pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avellino v Modena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Modena EU Bookmakers 19%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.31/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.69
-28% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
– Crosses 16.6
– Yellow Cards 2.4

Avellino vs Modena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Modena
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.26 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
146 Passes 335
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 45
7 Crosses 43
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.08.2025 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-0 Avellino Avellino İTB
23.01.2016 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-0 Avellino Avellino İTB
12.09.2015 Avellino Avellino 2-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
02.04.2015 Avellino Avellino 1-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
08.11.2014 Modena Modena 1-2 HT 0-2 Avellino Avellino İTB
17.05.2014 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 0-0 Avellino Avellino İTB

Avellino 1-0 Modena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
1-0
AWAY Modena
1.04 xG 0.14
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
449 Passes 305
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 3
27 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Modena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino nicked a narrow win over Modena 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Avellino as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Avellino had 58% of the ball to Modena's 42%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 1.04 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avellino had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Avellino and 0.67 for Modena.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Modena?

Avellino 1-0 Modena in the Italy - Serie B on 08/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Modena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Avellino 57%, draw 23%, Modena 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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