Cesena 3-4 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 8 May 2026

Cesena
3-4 HT 3-3
Padova Calcio
📅08/05/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Cesena vs Padova Calcio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.66
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.15
X/1
16%
3.94
X/2
6%
14.15
X/X
8%
7.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
20.25
2/2
8%
11.35
2/X
5%
19.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.25 — our 15% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.0pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.7pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.8pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cesena v Padova Calcio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.95/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.60
+11% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
22.2 Crosses 14.8
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Cesena vs Padova Calcio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Padova Calcio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 0.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
440 Passes 473
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.12.2025 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
04.08.2024 Cesena Cesena 3-1 HT 2-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTK
28.02.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
02.11.2020 Cesena Cesena 0-2 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
09.02.2020 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
25.09.2019 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTC

Cesena 3-4 Padova Calcio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
3-4
AWAY Padova Calcio
2.31 xG 1.85
58% Ball Possession 42%
30 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 3
435 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
46 Box Touches 35
39 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio nicked a narrow win over Cesena 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Cesena carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cesena had 58% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 42%, shots finished 30-15, expected goals 2.31 to 1.85 — on chances, Cesena could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cesena and 1.00 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Padova Calcio?

Cesena 3-4 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 08/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Cesena 62%, draw 19%, Padova Calcio 19%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cesena) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cesena) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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