De Graafschap 3-2 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 8 Aug 2025

📅08/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.61
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.02
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
20%
4.35
X/2
10%
10.15
X/X
7%
6.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.15
2/2
6%
7.22
2/X
5%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.15 — our 13% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
58%
+3.4pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.0pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.86/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.81
-3% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
25.1 Crosses 16.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-0D-4L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.73 xG 1.96
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
385 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.04.2025 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
01.12.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-1 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
26.01.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
01.09.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.05.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.08.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-2
AWAY VVV-Venlo
2.75 xG 1.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
29 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 9
317 Passes 210
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap squeezed past VVV-Venlo 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 56% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 44%, shots finished 29-9, expected goals 2.75 to 1.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold De Graafschap's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 1.67 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo?

De Graafschap 3-2 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 08/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 61%, draw 17%, VVV-Venlo 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5
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