Crawley Town 3-4 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 8 Oct 2024

📅08/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.74
Over
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.91
2-3
37%
1.77
4-5
25%
4.01
6+
12%
18.6
Value flag · 4-5 at 4.01 — our 25% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.6pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.65/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.36
-47% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / +40%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
236 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 72%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
14.8 Crosses 20.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.01 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
292 Passes 274
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.02.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
22.12.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-2 HT 0-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
18.03.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
20.09.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 3-2 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNTK
20.08.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-2 HT 0-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
29.11.2020 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-2 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
3-4
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
2.14 xG 2.64
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 11
7 Corners 2
491 Passes 174
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
36 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon nicked a narrow win over Crawley Town 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; AFC Wimbledon found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Crawley Town had 68% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 32%, shots finished 20-22, expected goals 2.14 to 2.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Crawley Town and 1.33 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?

Crawley Town 3-4 AFC Wimbledon in the England - Futbol League Cup on 08/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 40%, draw 26%, AFC Wimbledon 34%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Crawley Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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