NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Go Ahead Eagles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.24
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
14%
5.41
X/2
12%
6.45
X/X
12%
4.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
25.0
2/2
15%
4.27
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 6% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.85/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.23
+35% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
22.2 Crosses 17.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.28 xG 1.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
383 Passes 337
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 5-0 HT 4-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.05.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
28.01.2024 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
17.01.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOK
26.11.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
05.02.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-3
AWAY Go Ahead Eagles
0.67 xG 2.85
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 14
3 Corners 15
186 Passes 431
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 36
20 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Go Ahead Eagles squeezed past NEC Nijmegen 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 35% of the ball to Go Ahead Eagles's 65%, shots finished 11-27, expected goals 0.67 to 2.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Go Ahead Eagles's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Go Ahead Eagles led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.00 for Go Ahead Eagles.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Go Ahead Eagles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 43%, draw 25%, Go Ahead Eagles 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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