Perugia 2-1 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Mar 2026

📅09/03/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.8pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera EU Bookmakers 23%
-19% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.01/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.24
-37% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Pontedera
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Pontedera Pontedera 2-2 HT 1-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
17.08.2025 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTCK
27.04.2025 Perugia Perugia 3-0 HT 1-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
15.12.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 2-1 HT 1-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
27.01.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 2-3 HT 0-2 Perugia Perugia İTC
19.09.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-1 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
2-1
AWAY Pontedera
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia edged past Pontedera 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Perugia as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Perugia had 50% of the ball to Pontedera's 50%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Perugia and 1.17 for Pontedera.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Pontedera?

Perugia 2-1 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 09/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Perugia 51%, draw 26%, Pontedera 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Perugia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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