Helmond Sport 1-4 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.39
No
50%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.6
6+ Goals
10%
6.27
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.1 — our 28% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.51
1/2
6%
21.1
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
11%
7.29
X/2
11%
5.34
X/X
11%
6.05
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
22%
2.81
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
68%
-18.2pp
50%
BTTS No
32%
+18.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -16%
1.35/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.35
+4% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
17.8 Crosses 23.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-0D-4L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.76 xG 1.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
274 Passes 372
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-3 HT 0-2 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
16.02.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.09.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
06.03.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
18.11.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-2 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
22.04.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-4 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
1-4
AWAY De Graafschap
1.60 xG 2.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 310
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 23
30 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap swept aside Helmond Sport 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 39% — and on the day De Graafschap made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 52% of the ball to De Graafschap's 48%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 1.60 to 2.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.17 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

Helmond Sport 1-4 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 35%, draw 27%, De Graafschap 39%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Under 2.5
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