RB Leipzig 2-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 May 2026

RB Leipzig
2-1 HT 1-0
St. Pauli
📅09/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.3
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.74
Over 2.5
60%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.04
2-3 Goals
34%
2.07
4-5 Goals
27%
2.45
6+ Goals
15%
5.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.47
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
19.75
X/1
14%
3.96
X/2
7%
18.05
X/X
11%
8.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.0
2/2
4%
13.95
2/X
3%
22.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.0 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
72%
-5.4pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.1pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
33%
+7.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
67%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RB Leipzig v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
2.17/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.88
-17% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +24%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
474 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.1 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6

RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
2W-2D-2L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
469 Passes 320
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.01.2026 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
09.02.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
29.10.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-2 HT 3-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
22.09.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.02.2016 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
23.08.2015 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2

RB Leipzig 2-1 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-1
AWAY St. Pauli
1.37 xG 0.79
70% Ball Possession 30%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
646 Passes 211
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig squeezed past St. Pauli 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 70% of the ball to St. Pauli's 30%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.37 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.83 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?

RB Leipzig 2-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 67%, draw 18%, St. Pauli 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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