Hoffenheim 1-0 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 May 2026

📅09/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
30%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.89
Over 2.5
59%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.39
2-3 Goals
41%
2.11
4-5 Goals
26%
2.42
6+ Goals
10%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.85
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
18%
4.44
X/2
12%
11.4
X/X
9%
7.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
17.8
2/2
13%
7.72
2/X
6%
15.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.8 — our 10% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.2pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
19%
+10.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
31%
+10.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
69%
-10.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.3pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +21%
2.04/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.50
+3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
449 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
23.6 Crosses 17.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.35 xG 1.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 437
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2026 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
01.08.2025 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-0 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen HAZ
16.02.2025 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-3 HT 1-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
29.09.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-4 HT 3-3 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
03.03.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-1 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
07.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 1-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
1-0
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.52 xG 1.07
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
597 Passes 172
87% Pass Accuracy 64%
49 Box Touches 14
33 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim nicked a narrow win over Werder Bremen 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 72% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 28%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.52 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.33 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Hoffenheim 1-0 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 50%, draw 20%, Werder Bremen 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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