Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 May 2026

📅09/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.14
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.32
No
40%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
7.46
2-3 Goals
38%
2.24
4-5 Goals
25%
2.33
6+ Goals
13%
4.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.57
1/2
5%
24.35
1/X
7%
11.9
X/1
12%
5.49
X/2
12%
7.75
X/X
8%
6.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
18.35
2/2
16%
4.39
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.35 — our 7% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.1pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
72%
-11.7pp
40%
BTTS No
28%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +20%
1.69/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.61
+3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 81%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
18.5 Crosses 13.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.49 xG 2.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
383 Passes 398
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2026 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 HT 0-4 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
16.03.2025 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-4 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
01.11.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
17.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart ALSK
27.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
06.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
3.04 xG 0.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
322 Passes 323
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
44 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 49% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 51%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 3.04 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Stuttgart and 2.00 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 46%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
9 May 2026
16:30 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Analysis →
16:30 RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli Analysis →
16:30 Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →
19:30 Wolfsburg vs Bayern Münih Analysis →