NK Varazdin 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 9 May 2026

📅09/05/2026 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 29% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.31/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.20
+9% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.6 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.82 xG 1.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
265 Passes 295
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.03.2026 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
07.12.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 4-2 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
20.09.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
21.02.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
23.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.75 xG 0.29
41% Ball Possession 59%
3 Total Shots 3
1 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
230 Passes 378
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Lokomotiva Zagreb shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 41% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 59%, shots finished 3-3, expected goals 0.75 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.17 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 48%, draw 25%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NK Varazdin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ BTTS Yes
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