Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 28% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
14%
4.69
X/2
18%
7.02
X/X
11%
4.85
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
7%
4.96
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -17%
1.57/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.41
+41% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
339 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
11.2 Crosses 17.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Swindon Town
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.83 xG 0.66
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
446 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
28.10.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
24.04.2021 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 5-0 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
29.12.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-4 HT 1-3 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
09.02.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-3 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
01.09.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-1
AWAY Swindon Town
1.99 xG 1.13
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
501 Passes 350
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons got the better of Swindon Town 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 56% of the ball to Swindon Town's 44%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.99 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.33 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 44%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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