Le Havre 1-3 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.18
Over Pick
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.22
2-3
38%
1.87
4-5
25%
2.93
6+
13%
8.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.28
1/2
5%
20.85
1/X
11%
17.8
X/1
10%
11.85
X/2
9%
4.13
X/X
9%
6.39
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
35%
1.89
2/X
6%
15.8
Value flag · 1/X at 17.8 — our 11% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.8pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.5pp
50%
Away Win
61%
-11.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre The Market 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya The Market 66%
-17% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.16/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.01
-41% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
247 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 484 · 84%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.1
23.4 Crosses 22.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Marsilya
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.81 xG 2.53
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
333 Passes 657
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
11 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
05.01.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 5-1 HT 3-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
19.05.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
08.10.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 3-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
17.01.2009 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
23.08.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
08.01.2006 Marsilya Marsilya 4-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
1-3
AWAY Marsilya
0.90 xG 2.57
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
294 Passes 384
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya got the better of Le Havre 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Le Havre had 46% of the ball to Marsilya's 54%, shots finished 10-22, expected goals 0.90 to 2.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Le Havre and 2.83 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Marsilya?

Le Havre 1-3 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 25%, draw 26%, Marsilya 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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