Montpellier 1-4 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.34
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
56%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.98
Over Pick
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
18%
7.21
2-3
36%
2.23
4-5
30%
2.35
6+
16%
4.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
13%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
23%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
22%
Home Win
16%
+6.3pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.2pp
56%
Away Win
66%
-9.5pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.4pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.5pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier The Market 19%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG The Market 70%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +12%
1.32/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/1.21
-14% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +2%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 473 · 85%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
19.2 Crosses 14.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-0D-6L
AWAY PSG
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
0.94 xG 2.80
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 6
276 Passes 646
81% Pass Accuracy 92%
11 Box Touches 35
9 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2024 PSG PSG 6-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
17.03.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 2-6 HT 2-2 PSG PSG FR1
03.11.2023 PSG PSG 3-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
01.02.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
13.08.2022 PSG PSG 5-2 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
14.05.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-4 HT 0-3 PSG PSG FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-4
AWAY PSG
0.61 xG 1.73
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
240 Passes 638
82% Pass Accuracy 93%
15 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG swept aside Montpellier 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Montpellier had 31% of the ball to PSG's 69%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.61 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Montpellier and 4.50 for PSG.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs PSG?

Montpellier 1-4 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 22%, draw 22%, PSG 56%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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