Bastia vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bastia v Caen — Team-Based Signals
Bastia vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Bastia
FR2
3-1
HT 0-0
Bastia
FR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Caen
FR2
2-1
HT 1-1
Bastia
FR2
Bastia 2-1 Caen — Actual Match Statistics
Bastia nicked a narrow win over Caen 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Bastia as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Bastia had 49% of the ball to Caen's 51%, shots finished 28-4, expected goals 2.51 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bastia's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bastia and 1.67 for Caen.
What was the final score of Bastia vs Caen?
Bastia 2-1 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bastia vs Caen?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bastia 57%, draw 24%, Caen 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bastia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.