Pau 1-3 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 10 May 2025

Pau
1-3 HT 1-1
Guingamp
📅10/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
47%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
22%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+2.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 55%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.98/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/2.03
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -34%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
20.4 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Guingamp
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.93 xG 1.92
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
379 Passes 403
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 0-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
27.04.2024 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
26.08.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 4-0 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
22.04.2023 Pau Pau 2-1 HT 1-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
30.07.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 4-0 HT 3-0 Pau Pau FR2
19.04.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 3-0 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-3
AWAY Guingamp
0.42 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
398 Passes 473
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp got the better of Pau 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guingamp as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pau had 47% of the ball to Guingamp's 53%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.42 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Pau and 2.33 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Pau vs Guingamp?

Pau 1-3 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pau 29%, draw 24%, Guingamp 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guingamp), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guingamp) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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