Deportes Tolima 1-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 10 May 2026

📅10/05/2026 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
+0.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.24/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.20
+4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 75%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
16.2 Crosses 13.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 0.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
336 Passes 213
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 7
13 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
11.04.2026 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
12.07.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 3-2 HT 2-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
28.01.2025 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
03.10.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
18.09.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
24.07.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.80 xG 0.32
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
428 Passes 220
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 12
7 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima edged past Deportivo Pasto 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 63% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 37%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.80 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.33 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Deportes Tolima 1-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 56%, draw 23%, Deportivo Pasto 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5
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