Guadalajara 2-0 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒02:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.15
Over
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.98
2-3
43%
1.83
4-5
23%
2.94
6+
9%
9.03
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.98 — our 25% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Guadalajara win — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
58%
-1.6pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.8pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.72/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.58
-1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.3 Crosses 13.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Pachuca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.90 xG 0.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
301 Passes 354
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
23.02.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 2-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.10.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.04.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.02.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-0
AWAY Pachuca
2.80 xG 0.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
456 Passes 344
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara got the better of Pachuca 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 56% of the ball to Pachuca's 44%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.80 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guadalajara and 0.33 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Pachuca?

Guadalajara 2-0 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 56%, draw 21%, Pachuca 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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