Leon vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leon v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals
Leon vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics
Leon squeezed past Cruz Azul 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Leon had 45% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 55%, shots finished 9-21, expected goals 0.81 to 1.50 — on chances, Cruz Azul could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leon and 2.67 for Cruz Azul.
What was the final score of Leon vs Cruz Azul?
Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leon vs Cruz Azul?
Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Leon 26%, draw 23%, Cruz Azul 52%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cruz Azul) went the other way.