Santos Laguna 1-3 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.15
Over
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
21%
4.05
2-3
43%
1.83
4-5
24%
2.91
6+
12%
8.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
12%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
31%
+9.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.9pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-5.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.27/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.11
+4% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
18.2 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Necaxa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.52 xG 2.21
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
387 Passes 229
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.11.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 4-1 HT 3-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
08.02.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 3-2 HT 2-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
02.09.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
13.04.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
25.09.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-5 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
01.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
1-3
AWAY Necaxa
1.01 xG 2.23
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
276 Passes 246
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa saw off Santos Laguna 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (41% / 22% / 37%) promised a tight game; Necaxa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 55% of the ball to Necaxa's 45%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.01 to 2.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Santos Laguna and 2.67 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

Santos Laguna 1-3 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos Laguna win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 41%, draw 22%, Necaxa 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Santos Laguna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Santos Laguna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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