Cruz Azul vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cruz Azul v Leon — Team-Based Signals
Cruz Azul vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Leon
MEK
Cruz Azul 4-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics
Cruz Azul cruised past Leon 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Cruz Azul had 60% of the ball to Leon's 40%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.43 to 0.81.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.17 for Leon.
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Cruz Azul 4-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 49%, draw 26%, Leon 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.