Cruz Azul 4-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.18
Over 2.5
45%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.8pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
42%
+13.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
58%
-13.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.3pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.88/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.72
-5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
22.5 Crosses 13.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Leon
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
409 Passes 309
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
09.05.2025 Leon Leon 2-3 HT 1-3 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
16.04.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
15.09.2024 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.02.2024 Leon Leon 2-3 HT 0-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
29.10.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
4-1
AWAY Leon
1.43 xG 0.81
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 1
453 Passes 274
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul cruised past Leon 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 60% of the ball to Leon's 40%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.43 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.17 for Leon.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Leon?

Cruz Azul 4-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 49%, draw 26%, Leon 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
27 Jul 2025
02:00 Pachuca vs Mazatlan Analysis →
02:07 Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
04:00 Toluca vs Tigres UANL Analysis →
04:00 Monterrey vs Atlas Analysis →
06:05 Necaxa vs Club America Analysis →