Necaxa 1-1 Club America — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Club America EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -15%
1.14/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.02
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.5 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Club America
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.81 xG 1.80
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
198 Passes 480
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Club America Club America 2-3 HT 0-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
22.09.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
28.01.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
24.08.2023 Club America Club America 3-2 HT 2-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
12.02.2023 Club America Club America 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
11.09.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-1
AWAY Club America
1.28 xG 1.17
34% Ball Possession 66%
17 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
205 Passes 463
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
11 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Club America
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa and Club America couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Necaxa had 34% of the ball to Club America's 66%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.28 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Necaxa and 1.67 for Club America.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Club America?

Necaxa 1-1 Club America in the Mexico - Primera on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Club America?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 37%, draw 28%, Club America 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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