Guadalajara 4-3 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒02:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.63
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.11
6+ Goals
9%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 32% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.8pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.2pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.7pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.57/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.54
-10% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
381 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.3 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.39 xG 0.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
410 Passes 316
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2025 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.11.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
05.02.2024 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
09.07.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-1 HT 2-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
14.01.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
4-3
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.73 xG 1.52
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 6
378 Passes 296
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over Atletico San Luis 4-3. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 55% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 45%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.73 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico San Luis led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 1.00 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis?

Guadalajara 4-3 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 51%, draw 28%, Atletico San Luis 20%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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