Pachuca 1-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.9pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.2pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.80/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.80
-3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
374 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 74%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
20.6 Crosses 13.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 1.42
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
365 Passes 268
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
24.08.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 3-0 HT 3-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
28.04.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
01.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
19.07.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
1-0
AWAY Mazatlan
1.75 xG 0.13
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 2
3 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 2
444 Passes 210
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca nicked a narrow win over Mazatlan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pachuca had 65% of the ball to Mazatlan's 35%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 1.75 to 0.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pachuca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Mazatlan?

Pachuca 1-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 57%, draw 23%, Mazatlan 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
27 Jul 2025
02:07 Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
04:00 Toluca vs Tigres UANL Analysis →
04:00 Monterrey vs Atlas Analysis →
04:00 Cruz Azul vs Leon Analysis →
06:05 Necaxa vs Club America Analysis →