Novara 2-2 AlbinoLeffe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Feb 2026

📅11/02/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.25
6+ Goals
9%
21.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 34% vs market 31.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AlbinoLeffe EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.20/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.26
-10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AlbinoLeffe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2025 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe 3-2 HT 1-2 Novara Novara İTC
02.03.2025 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe 1-1 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
19.10.2024 Novara Novara 2-0 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe İTC
10.03.2024 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe 0-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
04.11.2023 Novara Novara 0-3 HT 0-2 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe İTC
05.02.2023 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 0-0 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
2-2
AWAY AlbinoLeffe
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Novara vs AlbinoLeffe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara and AlbinoLeffe couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Novara at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novara had 58% of the ball to AlbinoLeffe's 42%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AlbinoLeffe led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novara and 1.50 for AlbinoLeffe.

What was the final score of Novara vs AlbinoLeffe?

Novara 2-2 AlbinoLeffe in the Italy - Serie C on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs AlbinoLeffe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Novara 43%, draw 28%, AlbinoLeffe 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✗ Under 2.5
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