AlbinoLeffe 3-2 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
19.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AlbinoLeffe EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +5%
0.98/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.39
-21% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AlbinoLeffe
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Novara
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe 1-1 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
19.10.2024 Novara Novara 2-0 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe İTC
10.03.2024 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe 0-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
04.11.2023 Novara Novara 0-3 HT 0-2 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe İTC
05.02.2023 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 0-0 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe İTC
09.10.2022 AlbinoLeffe AlbinoLeffe 3-1 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AlbinoLeffe
3-2
AWAY Novara
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AlbinoLeffe vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AlbinoLeffe squeezed past Novara 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; AlbinoLeffe found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AlbinoLeffe had 68% of the ball to Novara's 32%, shots finished 13-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AlbinoLeffe had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AlbinoLeffe and 0.83 for Novara.

What was the final score of AlbinoLeffe vs Novara?

AlbinoLeffe 3-2 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AlbinoLeffe vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated a AlbinoLeffe win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AlbinoLeffe 38%, draw 26%, Novara 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AlbinoLeffe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AlbinoLeffe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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