Estrela U23 4-2 Estoril U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.9
Over 2.5
39%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
12%
X/2
19%
X/X
22%
2/1
3%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.5pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.0pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
49%
+12.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
51%
-12.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.5pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril U23 EU Bookmakers 45%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.03/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.92
-28% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -26%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
285 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela U23
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Estoril U23
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2025 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 1-2 HT 1-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
26.11.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 3-2 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 UŞGB
27.08.2024 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 0-1 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
05.03.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-2 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 PORU23
16.01.2024 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 1-1 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
19.09.2023 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 1-2 HT 1-0 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 UŞGB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela U23
4-2
AWAY Estoril U23
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estrela U23 vs Estoril U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela U23 beat Estoril U23 4-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (30% / 32% / 39%) promised a tight game; Estrela U23 found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela U23 had 47% of the ball to Estoril U23's 53%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estrela U23 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Estrela U23 and 1.33 for Estoril U23.

What was the final score of Estrela U23 vs Estoril U23?

Estrela U23 4-2 Estoril U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela U23 vs Estoril U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estoril U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estrela U23 30%, draw 32%, Estoril U23 39%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estoril U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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