KuPS Kuopio 1-0 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
15%
6.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.35
X/1
13%
4.09
X/2
6%
13.7
X/X
10%
7.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.1
2/2
7%
10.35
2/X
6%
18.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
66%
-5.3pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.2pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.3pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.83/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.88
-3% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -21%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
434 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 81%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
22.8 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Gnistan
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.90 xG 1.32
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
444 Passes 292
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-1 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
27.09.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 0-4 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
01.07.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 6-2 HT 3-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
27.04.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
07.07.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HT 3-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
19.05.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 0-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
1-0
AWAY Gnistan
75% Ball Possession 25%
25 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
630 Passes 153
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio squeezed past Gnistan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 75% of the ball to Gnistan's 25%, shots finished 25-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.83 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan?

KuPS Kuopio 1-0 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 61%, draw 21%, Gnistan 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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