Loudoun United 3-3 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.13
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
62%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-1.5pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.0pp
62%
Away Win
55%
+6.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 60%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.23/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.94
+18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
13.4 Crosses 23.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Loudoun United
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Louisville City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.03 xG 1.54
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
412 Passes 255
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.06.2025 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-4 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
01.06.2025 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLKP
16.04.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 2-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United ABDK
22.03.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
07.09.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
20.04.2024 Loudoun United Loudoun United 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
3-3
AWAY Louisville City
1.89 xG 1.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
285 Passes 330
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United and Louisville City couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Louisville City at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Loudoun United had 47% of the ball to Louisville City's 53%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.89 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Loudoun United and 1.83 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs Louisville City?

Loudoun United 3-3 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 20%, draw 19%, Louisville City 62%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Louisville City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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