PAOK 1-0 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.27
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.94
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.0
X/2
10%
7.17
X/X
15%
4.74
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
13%
5.15
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
1.16/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.20
-5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
18.2 Crosses 17.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AEK Atina
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.17
44% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
211 Passes 306
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-3 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
02.02.2025 PAOK PAOK 1-2 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
09.01.2025 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUK
18.12.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
20.10.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-1 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
28.04.2024 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
1-0
AWAY AEK Atina
0.77 xG 0.88
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
172 Passes 368
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH PAOK vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK squeezed past AEK Atina 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, PAOK had 35% of the ball to AEK Atina's 65%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.77 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for PAOK and 1.50 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of PAOK vs AEK Atina?

PAOK 1-0 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split PAOK 43%, draw 26%, AEK Atina 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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