AEK Atina 2-3 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.9
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
16.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.54
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
17%
4.47
X/2
8%
8.4
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
9%
6.74
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
50%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.25/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.32
+0% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
22.4 Crosses 10.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
2W-3D-1L
AWAY PAOK
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.81 xG 1.29
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 Passes 209
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2025 PAOK PAOK 1-2 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
09.01.2025 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUK
18.12.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
20.10.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-1 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
28.04.2024 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
07.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
2-3
AWAY PAOK
1.59 xG 1.78
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
350 Passes 206
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK edged past AEK Atina 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AEK Atina had 60% of the ball to PAOK's 40%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.59 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AEK Atina and 1.33 for PAOK.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs PAOK?

AEK Atina 2-3 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 51%, draw 27%, PAOK 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AEK Atina), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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YUN More Greece - Super League
30 Mar 2025
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