Mushuc Runa 1-4 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 11 Jul 2026

📅11/07/2026 · 🕒22:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
57%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.82
Over 2.5
59%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
38%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
21%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
57%
Away Win
55%
+2.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
51%
-9.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
49%
+9.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.0pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 59%
+3% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.05/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.87
+1% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +32%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
255 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 84%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
18.0 Crosses 19.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.71
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
161 Passes 387
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2026 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 1-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
20.09.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-2 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
20.08.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle CSA
13.08.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa CSA
24.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
1-4
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.32 xG 3.02
15 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 6
355 Passes 381
13 Box Touches 36
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Independiente Del Valle ran out comfortable winners over Mushuc Runa 4-1 away from home in the Ecuador - Premier on 11 Jul 2026. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 59% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 15-22, expected goals 1.32 to 3.02.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle lead the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.67 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Mushuc Runa 1-4 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 11/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 19%, draw 24%, Independiente Del Valle 57%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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