Independiente Del Valle 3-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 8 Mar 2026

📅08/03/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
3%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
67%
+0.2pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.5pp
12%
Away Win
12%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.9pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.67/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.83
-5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -9%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 70%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.9 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.79 xG 1.00
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
370 Passes 182
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.09.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-2 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
20.08.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle CSA
13.08.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa CSA
24.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.33 xG 0.20
72% Ball Possession 28%
21 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
501 Passes 147
93% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle got the better of Mushuc Runa 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 72% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 28%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.33 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.17 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Independiente Del Valle 3-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 08/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 67%, draw 21%, Mushuc Runa 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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